SOFTWAREONE (=) : CMD 2026: a fragile balance between ambitious targets and execution

研报英文原文证据摘录

SOFTWAREONE (=) : CMD 2026: a fragile balance between ambitious targets and execution

Investment case, valuation and risks

SoftwareOne (Neutral, Target Price CHF9)

Investment case

SoftwareOne is a software and cloud re-seller (Marketplace segment) with a growing

cloud services business (Services segment) and a global presence, serving 65,000

customers. The group benefits from strong global demand for software and services

while the roll-out of Microsoft's Copilot offer could present further upside. SoftwareOne

is embarking on a new chapter, as the Crayon merger will further scale up the business,

while the company now benefits from a cleaner governance story after

Board/leadership changes, take-private discussions, and profit warnings. However,

SoftwareOne remains at risk of broader industry headwinds such as disintermediation

risk and AI disruption.

Valuation methodology

We value SoftwareOne on 6x 2027E EV/EBITDA.

Risks

To the upside:

- Demonstrating revenue synergies ahead of expectations could prompt the market to

value the asset on a higher multiple.

- Performance of the Marketplace segment above our expectations and despite

industry structural headwinds could lead to upside to our Group revenue and EBITDA

estimates.

- Take-private scenario receding, with integration of Crayon and share price now well

below 2023's bidding offer price levels.

- Receding headwinds from CSP transition across industry peers and SoftwareOne.

To the downside:

- Crayon cost and revenue synergies falling short of targets.

- Margin pressure from the push towards the Services segment.

- Increased disintermediation by cloud vendors increasingly selling direct.

- Increased AI disruption risk on the group: we see the Services segment as more

exposed to AI disruption than Marketplace segment.