DRAFTKINGS (-) : DK discloses May prediction market volumes - thoughts

研报英文原文证据摘录

DRAFTKINGS (-) : DK discloses May prediction market volumes - thoughts

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DRAFTKINGS UNDERPERFORMPRICE* USD24.8  TARGET PRICE USD20 (DOWNSIDE 19%)

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DK discloses May prediction market volumes - thoughts

9 JUNE 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 14:22* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Charlie Muir-Sands BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8432 charles.muir-sands@uk.bnpparibas.com

News:

This morning US pre-market DraftKings disclosed: “annualized consumer volume in the Company's Predictions offering

increased 24% month-over-month to $1.3 billion and annualized total volume traded increased 34% month-over-month

to $3.1 billion, in each case as compared to April 2026.“. This is impressive growth but implies only around a 1% share

of Prediction Market market volumes, on our calculations. DraftKings is clearly having some success but it is too early

to tell if this will exceed that already incorporated into our estimates. Meanwhile the company has already indicated

heavy marketing investment to get PM launched, as well as to acquire customers over the FIFA World Cup. We note

our Q2 adj EBITDA estimates are below consensus, likely reflecting this cost headwind.

BNPP View:

Recall, alongside the company’s Q1 results DraftKings disclosed annualised consumer volumes “over $1bn” in April

with the 24% increase to $1.3bn in May disclosed today reconciling with this.

When comparing with leading prediction market (PM) peers, the total notional volume of $3.1bn is the relevant figure

to use. Kalshi’s total notional volume in May was $16.8bn, per The Block, and Polymarket’s notional volume $9.2bn

(across its combined onshore and offshore platforms). Hence, setting aide other smaller players, DraftKing’s $0.26bn