MapLight Therapeutics: Previewing ML007 Phase 2 ZEPHYR in schizophrenia

研报英文原文证据摘录

MapLight Therapeutics: Previewing ML007 Phase 2 ZEPHYR in schizophrenia

t has been framework** = Based on consensus methodology

conditioned by selective-agent disappointments to brace for a single-digit PANSS §e == MorganConsensusStanleydataResearchis providedestimatesby Refinitiv Estimates

result, but that is the wrong frame for a pan-muscarinic + PAC. We expect a double- Quarterly EPS ($)

digit placebo-adjusted reduction in our base case, helped by ML007's potency and 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

ZEPHYR's placebo-mitigating design. Because efficacy is, in our view, largely de- Q1 (1.75) - (1.34)a - (1.21)

risked, the data that actually de-risks is tolerability. If ML007-C-MA matches or Q2 (1.14) - (1.20) - (1.09)

Q3 (0.90) - (1.14) - (1.06)

beats Cobenfy's cholinergic AE burden, the best-in-class thesis is intact and the Q4 (1.81) - (1.15) - (1.08)

readout should support constructive views on ADP. Conversely, if tolerability is e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

merely comparable, the efficacy read-through stays positive but the full best-in-

class premium does not unlock. Across scenarios, we see merit supporting double-

digit PANSS scores and, assuming a well-tolerated profile, could potentially surprise

a cautious Street to the upside.

Valuation. Overweight, $34 PT. Bull case scenario of $60 with meaningful clinical

de-risking ($2B risk-adjusted revenue) vs. bear $15 on poor data ($1.3B).

Schizophrenia is the near-term driver, but ADP is the bigger optionality. Given our

view that the mechanism guarantees competitive efficacy, we weight outcomes Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,