Quick Note - Gujarat Gas (GUJGA IN) (Buy) - CGD earnings beat estimates; outlook strong

研报英文原文证据摘录

Quick Note - Gujarat Gas (GUJGA IN) (Buy) - CGD earnings beat estimates; outlook strong

Global Markets Research

Gujarat Gas GGAS.NS GUJGA IN 31 May 2026

EQUITY: INDIA RENEWABLES & CLEAN ENERGY

RatingCGD earnings beat estimates; outlook strong Remains Buy

Target price INR 390 RemainsQuick Note

Closing priceGujaratGas(GGL)reportedfirstquarterlyresultspostitsmergerwithGujaratState 29 May 2026 INR 401

PetroleumCorporation(GSPC;unlisted).Assuchtheresultsarenotcomparableto

quarterlyestimatesprovidedbyusandtheconsensus.OverallwethinkGGL’s4Q

numbersarepositivegivenstrongCGDvolumesandbetter-thanexpectedmargins Research Analysts

(despiteheadwinds). India Oil & Gas/Chemicals

GGLhasdonewellsince16April(up20%vsthebenchmarketNifty50’s-3%).Inour Bineet Banka, CFA - NFASL

previous report, we highlightedvolumeupsideinthekeyMorbiregiongivenpropane bineet.banka@nomura.com

sourcingissues.Wealsodidaproformaanalysisonthemergedentityvaluation(read +91(22)4037 4044

report)wherewehighlightedsignificantvaluationupsidepotentialinthemergedentity

largelyduetoeliminationofcrossholdings.

GGLishostingananalystbriefingat4PMon1June.Keythingstowatchoutfrom

managementcommentary:1)volumeguidanceespeciallyfortheIndustrialsegment;2)

marginoutlookgiventhesharpriseinspotLNGprices;3)outlookfortheGasTrading

business(volumeandmargins);and4)listingtimelineforGSPLTransmission(unlisted).

Merged entity EBITDA down 18% q-q

• 4Q EBITDA of merged entity at INR7.8bn was down 18% q-q (+34% y-y). This is

largely due to softer earnings q-q for its Gas Trading business (PBT down 21% q-q).

• 4Q PBT before exceptional items of the merged entity at INR7.9bn declined 15% q-q,

but up 20% y-y.

• 4Q EPS of the merged entity at INR5.5/share was down 25% q-q. FY26 EPS of

INR24.5/share was down 34% y-y.