Global Valuation, Accounting & Tax: OBBBA Update: Benefits Still Ahead, 2026 FCF Could Surprise

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Global Valuation, Accounting & Tax: OBBBA Update: Benefits Still Ahead, 2026 FCF Could Surprise

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June 11, 2026 06:36 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Valuation, Accounting & Tax | North America Kate Konetzke, CFA, CPA

GVAT Strategist

OBBBA Update: Benefits Still Kate.Konetzke@morganstanley.comNicholas Lentini, CFA +1 212 761-3457

Equity Strategist

Nick.Lentini@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5863

Ahead, 2026 FCF Could Todd Castagno, CFA, CPA

Todd.Castagno@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6893

Surprise Michael J Wilson

M.Wilson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2532

OBBBA cash flow benefits may be underappreciated for 2026. Andrew B Pauker

Substantial unused R&D deductions, bonus dpn tax shield from EquityAndrew.Pauker@morganstanley.comStrategist +1 212 761-1330

rising capex, and a new tax rate calculation for foreign sales Martin W Tobias, CFA

could lift S&P 500 FCF by 1%+, impact incremental capex StrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076

financing needs, and influence Treasury funding. Matthew Hornbach

Strategist

Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837

Key Takeaways Kristine T Liwag

Equity Analyst

The median cash tax rate fell ~3% in 2025. Recent IRS guidance and new OBBBA Kristine.Liwag@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2980

benefits phasing in this year should drive rates lower, raising S&P 500 FCF by 1% Angel Castillo

+. Angel.Castillo@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1931

Christopher Snyder, CFA

We see an underappreciated and largely unrealized tailwind from the OBBBA

through the restoration of bonus depreciation, immediate R&D expensing, and Chris.Snyder@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4470

FDDEI. Clinton Chang, CFA, CPA

We feature single stock screens on the companies benefitting from R&D Clinton.Chang@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1185