ADA 2026 - T2 NIT CGM Tailwinds (TAM Unlock Nearing), Ketones, & Patch Pieplines In Focus; DXCM Our Fav. Diabetes Name

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ADA 2026 - T2 NIT CGM Tailwinds (TAM Unlock Nearing), Ketones, & Patch Pieplines In Focus; DXCM Our Fav. Diabetes Name

Truist Securities

patch mkt doesn't expand when competition comes in. If it does expand the mkt, PODD should handily exceed those levels. We appreciate

PODD has the most to lose from anticipated trialing of new tubeless offerings in 2027 as they attempt to compete more

aggressively vs. PODD’s form factor advantage. KOLs don’t expect more than a 5-10% share shift over the next 5 years (more like

3-5% over next 2-3 yrs) away from PODD but share shift is expected which sounds manageable. Admittedly though, this feedback

is also before these alternative tubeless devices have been commercialized, so views could change (positively or negatively) on share

in 1-2 years. In the meantime, we expect the competition narrative overhang to linger and this will raise the bar for execution for

PODD, where product recalls/field actions in recent weeks haven’t helped. The good news is that endo feedback ---and even PODD's

competitors---are not characterizing the recalls as a major setback for pts or physicians/much of a real share gain oppty (PODD mgmt.

explicitly said zero impact to 2Q rev). We believe a share erosion expectation is already reflected in the stock to a large extent with

shares -46% YTD vs. -19% IHI and if PODD can sustain a high-teens+ overall top-line with 20% EPS growth, the valuation gap

vs. this growth profile should have pot'l narrow over time. That said, narrative feels offsides from a more 'tactical' nearer-term

trading standpoint (at least relative to TNDM and BBNX) for now where tubeless launches are share gain/acceleration catalysts (in

theory) and disproving the negative over intensifying patch competition in 2027+ is challenging.