Macquarie Prediction Market Pulse

研报英文原文证据摘录

Macquarie Prediction Market Pulse

Macquarie Equity Research

09 June 2026

Consumer Services

United StatesMacquarie Prediction Market Pulse

Key Points

• Prediction Markets (PM) saw continued momentum in May, with record ChadBeynon AaronLee

volumes, as market leader Kalshi increased its volume market share to

57%.

Sam• Sportradar and Kalshi deal reinforces SRAD/GENI as the 'picks-and- Ghafir, CFA

shovels' layer of PM.

• PM regulatory and integrity issues remain core to the long-term

sustainability of the industry, particularly related to sports contracts. Figure 1 - Online ratings and TPs

Upside/

Rating TP Price Downside

Prediction Markets saw continued momentum in May, with record volumes GAMB Outperform $6.00 $2.42 148%

FLUT Outperform $190.00 $104.95 81%

as market leader Kalshi increased its implied volume market share to 57% SRAD Outperform $24.00 $15.26 57%

(from 50% in April; Fig. 3). Strategic partnerships, including Sportradar’s GENI Outperform $10.00 $6.46 55%

infrastructure deal with Kalshi, reinforced the 'picks-and-shovels' layer, while DKNG Outperform $38.00 $24.78 53%

SGHC Outperform $19.00 $12.87 48%

investor capital continued to flow heavily into the space. At the same time, INSE Neutral $10.00 $7.80 28%

regulatory scrutiny intensified, with insider trading cases, federal rulemaking PENN Outperform $23.00 $19.17 20%

progress, and state-level pushback highlighting structural uncertainty. With RSI Outperform $30.00 $26.14 15%

CZR Neutral $31.00 $29.32 6%

OSB operators now leaning into their own PM products, the key questions BYD Neutral $91.00 $86.58 5%

for investors remain centered around the long-term product overlap MGM Outperform $46.00 $47.26 -3%

between PM and OSB, as well as potential regulatory changes. BALY Neutral $13.00 $13.93 -7%