Bad June Rising

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Bad June Rising

May 31, 2026 Bad June Rising

Table is Set for Long-Awaited Momentum Unwind

Jonathan Krinsky, CMT

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: (332) 400-5152 jkrinsky@btig.comTECHNICAL High Beta Momentum has gained 42% over the last 9 weeks into a new high. We have

only seen that set-up two other periods: Nov. ’99 and Jan. ’21. Both of these saw further

gains in months ahead, but ultimately gave all those gains back in short order. The SOX is

up 71% in 9 weeks only surpassed on March 10th, 2000 which was the peak of the dot-

com bubble. As we flip the calendar to June, it's notable that long/short momentum

has been negative for 6 of the last 9 Junes. While much of the June weakness is dueSTRATEGY

to strength in low momentum rather than weakness in high-mo, the extreme nature

of high-mo continues to suggest caution especially when we have the VIX at 15, and

divergences popping up. At the same time, we want to participate the low-mo breakout.

Software (IGV), despite reaching our initial upside target, remains a low-mo group. It

created a bullish 'island gap' on Friday, suggesting further upside ahead as long as that

gap holds. Bitcoin and related equities are also timely here.

■ Momentum Surge into a New High is Rare. High Beta Momentum has gained 42%

over the last 9 weeks into a new high. We have only seen that set-up two other

periods: Nov. ’99 and Jan. ’21. Both of these saw further gains in months ahead,

but ultimately gave all those gains back in short order. SOX up 71% in 9 weeks only

surpassed on March 10th, 2000 which was the peak of the dot-com bubble. We

would caution chasing further strength high-beta momentum into June.

■ Mo' Vulnerable Into June. Long/Short Mo' negative 6 of the last 9 Junes. Looks to