Flagstar Financial, Inc.: Steady progress toward earnings, growth, and capital goals

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Flagstar Financial, Inc.: Steady progress toward earnings, growth, and capital goals

Equity Research

U.S. Mid-Cap Banks

10 June 2026

Flagstar Financial, Inc.

Steady progress toward earnings,

growth, and capital goals First Look

Net loan growth is accelerating as C&I outpaces CRE runoff. FLG OVERWEIGHT

Capital return expected as ratio is well ahead of targets. U.S. Mid-Cap Banks POSITIVE

Price Target USD 16.00

Price (10-Jun-26) USD 14.48

Potential Upside/Downside +10.5%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

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Summary: Management spoke at a competitor conference today and struck a similar optimistic

tone as we've heard in recent quarters, with the C&I pipeline now pulling through more to net

loan growth and multifamily credit quality remaining well managed as loans pay off at par. We

continue to expect FLG to stack good quarters on credit and see accelerating loan growth. This

performance, combined with an expectation for capital return to begin in 2H, should bode well

for shares, in our opinion.

Updated 2Q guidance: Management reiterated prior guidance but provided more specificity on

$ amounts they're expecting for 2Q. C&I growth is expected to be above 1Q's +$1.4B/+9% Q/Q

rate. This is consistent with prior messaging, and we wouldn't be surprised to see growth in the

$1.5B-$2.0B range (we forecast +$1.7B), as management noted last month at our London

Conference (note) that C&I growth could hit $2B/Q as early as in 2Q. Mgt. expects $1B in CRE