AP Moller Maersk: MTM Maersk + 5 reasons why Container shipping is less oversupplied than perceived

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AP Moller Maersk: MTM Maersk + 5 reasons why Container shipping is less oversupplied than perceived

Barclays | AP Moller Maersk

5 reasons why container shipping is less oversupplied than it looks. Expectations and

consensus seem to assume a normalization of earnings in 2027 and onwards as newbuild

vessels are delivered. However, whilst expectations already reflect oversupply, they don't reflect

unpredictable disruptive events (geopolitics, bad weather, strikes etc) which have led to

positive earnings trend in a momentum-driven sector. As such, we think the favourable

momentum setup might continue. We also think that capacity and pricing discipline by shipping

lines have outperformed vs a poor industry track record. We see 5 reasons why container

shipping is a better industry now compared to the previous down-cycle (2015-16). 1) Change in

vessel ownership mix - Building on the strong cash generation since 2020, shipping lines have

placed orders to change their fleet ownership structure from chartered to owned and have full

control on assets LT. Whilst the orderbook is high, c82% of the orderbook is in the shipping lines'

hands vs non-operating owners. At the moment, only 64% of the fleet is owned by shipping

lines, which pro-forma will increase to 75%. We see lessors as the ones bearing the pain of

oversupply and eventually driving idling/scrapping. 2) Industry is a lot more consolidated -

The top 10 players now hold cc85% market share vs c65% in 2016, following a consolidation

wave in the previous downcycle. Large players have shown interest in further consolidating the

market going forward. 3) Alliances represent 90%+ of the market, with modern alliances

launched from 2015 (2M alliance in 2015, Ocean alliance in 2017) and we think they are getting