CEE Equity Strategy "Postcard from Warsaw" Potyra

研报英文原文证据摘录

CEE Equity Strategy "Postcard from Warsaw" Potyra

Global Research

9 June 2026ab

CEE Equity Strategy Equities

PolandPostcard from Warsaw

Banks, Ex-S&L

Michal Potyra, CFA

Solid moods continue despite a volatile external environment Analyst

We recently visited Poland to meet with a range of listed companies, banks and michal.potyra@ubs.com

policymakers.The broader macroeconomic outlook remains favorable, with minimal +44-20-7568-1935

impact from elevated energy prices and increased geopolitical tensions. The capital

expenditure cycle and investment trends, partly bolstered by EU funds, remain key

themes, with credit growth now solidly positioned in the high-single digits. While

consumers may not be strong, they are demonstrably resilient despite prevailing

pressures. Aside from the fiscal deficit, there are no significant imbalances in the

economy. The NBP is anticipated to maintain its current stance as inflation continues to

align with its target range. AI remains a prominent topic of discussion, with investors

focusing on potential vulnerabilities, such as new market entrants and reduced barriers

to entry, while companies increasingly identify opportunities, particularly in process

optimization and cost efficiencies.

Macro: GDP growth at 3.4-3.6% level supported by strong EU funds inflows

The 2026-27 outlook remains solid, supported by rising investments and resilient

consumer spending, despite energy price volatility. Post-2028, the outlook becomes

uncertain due to parliamentary elections (3/4Q27) and reduced EU fund inflows. EU

fund disbursement is progressing well. As of June 2, the European Commission has

disbursed €34bn to Poland under its RRP, representing 62% of the €55bn allocation.