UBS Global I/OSemiconductors and Semi Equipment "WFE Update: Early Innings ..."

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UBS Global I/OSemiconductors and Semi Equipment "WFE Update: Early Innings ..."

Global Research

9 June 2026ab

UBS Global I/O Equities

GlobalSemiconductors and Semi Equipment

Semiconductors

WFE Update: Early Innings of Supercycle, ’28

Timothy Arcuri

WFE On Track For ~$250B Analyst

timothy.arcuri@ubs.com

+1-415-352 5676

Nicolas Gaudois

Raising WFE again – industry on track for ~$200B/~$250B in ‘27/’28

Analyst

We are raising our WFE forecast for 2026/2027/2028 as we see supply chain signals nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com

aligning to reach ~$250B in WFE by C2028. Cleanroom constraints are starting to clear +65-6495 5148

with Samsung P4/Hynix M15X ramping now, P5/Y1 ramping in C2027, and MU starting Francois-Xavier Bouvignies

to ramp two fabs late this year (ID1/Tongluo) and one NAND fab (Singapore 10B) in late Analyst

’27 – see Figure 2Sumaryofmemoryfabsexpectedtorampoverthenextfewyears. We are also hearing more about upside from several foundries that francois.bouvignies@ubs.com

have been able to secure/optimize cleanroom space to support higher WFE shipments. +44-20-7568 7105

Customers have begun to provide SPE suppliers with 8Qs of visibility – something we Kenji Yasui

have never heard before in our nearly 30yrs covering the group – and we have seen Analyst

many examples of new capacity expansion in the supply chain to meet demand. For kenji.yasui@ubs.com

2026, we now see total WFE up ~27% Y/Y with memory up ~50% Y/Y (DRAM and +81-3-5208 6211

NAND both up in a similar range) and foundry/logic up ~12% Y/Y. For 2027, our total Jimmy Yu

WFE forecast is up ~35% Y/Y (DRAM up another ~42% Y/Y to ~$74B, NAND up ~40% Analyst

Y/Y to ~$24.5B) and see foundry/logic up ~28% Y/Y to ~$99.5B. We are also raising our S1460517080002