IT Hardware and Communications Equipment: Server Model Update: Enterprise Surprises Up, AI Momentum Remains

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IT Hardware and Communications Equipment: Server Model Update: Enterprise Surprises Up, AI Momentum Remains

Barclays | IT Hardware and Communications Equipment

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Server Model Wrap Up

•• Our CY26Cloud server revenue forecasts move lower and CY27 move higher, accounting for

the above-mentioned strength in hyperscaler capex and focus on technical infrastructure

investments. However, we do acknowledge some lack of visibility on AI server builds could

make numbers lumpy (like we've previously seen with SMCI).

°° Our new Cloud server revenue estimates are $567Bn/$885Bn in CY26/27 vs our prior

estimates of $585Bn/$817Bn, respectively. We model growth of 77% and 56% in 2026/2027

vs our prior estimates of 84% and 40%. xPU server estimates and updated segmentation

from HPE (we adjusted our 2025 metrics), primarily accounted for the drop in 2026 growth

vs prior estimates (not a fundamental change). DELL (and to lesser extent SMCI) drove the

tick up in our estimates on the OEM front, with another increase in implied ODM growth.

°° Despite the move higher in CY27 estimates, we expect there is potential upside bias to our

estimates, given the strong capex announcements from the large hypers, the rising interest

in enterprise/inferencing opportunities, and if large AI training deals get appropriate

funding. However, there is also a scenario in which we could see a push-out in revenues,

given some of the larger sovereign deals are scheduled for the Middle East, although we

have yet to hear of any deployment delays.

•• We now estimate Enterprise server revenues up ~33% in CY26 (vs prior estimate of ~2%),