Roche: ADA call - 1) Enice GLP-1/GIP efficacy good, tolerability less clear; 2) Petre Amylin, clean for combo use, but LLY ahead on G/G/A approach

研报英文原文证据摘录

Roche: ADA call - 1) Enice GLP-1/GIP efficacy good, tolerability less clear; 2) Petre Amylin, clean for combo use, but LLY ahead on G/G/A approach

Barclays | Roche

•• Our forecast for Petrelintide: Roche management guided a SFr >3bn peak sales for

CT-388. We model risk-unadj peak sales of ~$1.5bn for petrelintide for ROP (product mono +

combo peak sales est at c.$3bn, 50:50 w/ ZEAL), which we include in our model at 40% POS.

Our ~$0.6bn of risk-adjusted peak sales contributes c.0.4% to our ROG NPV.

ROP’s obesity catalysts in H2’26 include: 1) SYNERGY Phase 2 enicepatide + petrelintide

combo initiation, 2) Enicepatide Phase 2 T2D data, 3) Petrelintide Phase 3 monotherapy

initiation, 4) Petrelintide ZUPREME-2 T2D+obesity readout, and 5) CT-996 oral GLP-1 Phase 2

obesity/T2D progress and Phase 3 go/no-go decision.

Details:

•• ROP is looking to position enicepatide beyond “another tirzepatide-like drug,” with

signaling bias and strong efficacy as the key levers. Management highlighted enicepatide’s

fully signal-biased GLP-1/GIP mechanism, arguing that reduced receptor desensitisation

could support stronger efficacy. In the Phase 2 Obesity study, once-weekly enicepatide

achieved up to 22.7% WL at week 48 on the 24mg dose, with the curve showing weight still

declining at the end of the assessment period, supporting ROP’s argument that longer

treatment in P3 could potentially drive greater weight loss, surpassing LLY’s Zepbound WL

benchmark. On safety/tolerability, Roche emphasised that most GI AEs were mild/moderate,

with no grade 4/5 events, and that AE-related discontinuation was low overall.

•• Placebo-controlled trial execution is becoming more challenging as patients

increasingly have access to GLP-1s outside trials. ROP acknowledged that placebo-arm