Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG "The icon strikes back - Upgrade to Buy" (Buy)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG "The icon strikes back - Upgrade to Buy" (Buy)

(mainly in China), we see potential for cutting workforce-related costs by >€1bn. Cash

From To % ch Cons.

conversion should improve substantially so that automotive FCF could almost reach pre- 12/26E 1.74 2.10 20 1.77

crisis levels by 2030. We change IFRS EPS forecasts by -3% to +11% (UBS adj. EPS +12 to 12/27E 1.75 2.00 14 2.32

+20%), but FCF estimates are raised by up to >20%. 12/28E 2.53 2.83 12 2.92

Navigating the upcoming catalysts; is a 2027 trough priced in? Patrick Hummel, CFA

Analyst

We expect a relatively solid Q2 print with ~7% OPM thanks to a strong mix, before patrick.hummel@ubs.com

potential one-off charges (which should remain well below €1bn, we think). The CMD +41-44-239 52 54

should be a positive catalyst as visibility on the return to double-digit margins improves.

David Lesne2027 represents the ICE Macan "gap year" (UBSe: €-0.6bn OP impact y/y), which isn't

reflected in consensus yet (we're ~€0.7bn below on OP level). However, we think the david.lesne@ubs.com

buy side is well aware as management has communicated proactively on the issue. +33-14-888 3034

Importantly, we think despite a lower top line in 2027, OP margin will remain ~stable y/y.

Juan Perez-Carrascosa

Valuation: Upgrade to Buy, €60 PT (from €40) juan-perez.carrascosa@ubs.com

As we expect OP to more than double by 2030E, P/E drops from 25x (2026E) to 11x +34-91-436 9025

(2030E). Applying the average & current 24m trading P/E on 2030E suggests ~25-45%

upside to the share price by 2028. The justification for the multiple is P911's ability to

rebuild a resilient double-digit margin business, helped by unrivalled brand strength, a

right-sized organisation and limited China downside risk (only 12% sales exposure left).