US Softlines Retail "UBS Evidence Lab inside: Off-Price vs. Dept. Stores..."

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US Softlines Retail "UBS Evidence Lab inside: Off-Price vs. Dept. Stores..."

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US Softlines Retail Equities

AmericasUBS Evidence Lab inside: Off-Price vs. Dept.

Stores: Off-Price Share Gains Remain Robust Retailers, Specialty

Jay Sole

Analyst

jay.sole@ubs.com

We continue to rate TJX and BURL Buy: +1-212-713 3559

Off-Price retailers have been major share gainers over Department Stores, in terms of Mauricio Serna, CFA

both sales and EBIT dollars, over the past 10+ years. Importantly, our analysis shows Off- Analyst

Price's market share gain trends remained strong in 1Q26, particularly given comp sales mauricio.serna@ubs.com

outperformance from these players. We believe Off-Price retailers are well positioned to +1-212-713 9028

continue taking market share over the long run. Within this group, we rate TJX (link) and Natalie Koltermann

BURL (link) Buy. We see LT potential from TJX's international growth initiatives. For Associate Analyst

BURL, we expect ongoing margin benefits from its Burlington 2.0 strategy. We rate natalie.koltermann@ubs.com

ROST Neutral. +1-212-713 4229

Aditya Kulkarni

We continue to rate DDS, M, and KSS Sell: Associate Analyst

We think Department Stores remain challenged because of their weaker growth aditya.kulkarni@ubs.com

prospects (link). We expect EPS misses will lead to P/E contraction and stock +1-212-713 1098

underperformance. Serge Severenchuk

Associate Analyst

Off-Price retailers' current share of sales is 69.4%, up 230 bps y/y: serge.severenchuk@ubs.com

+1-212-713 4856

We compared the three main public Off-Price retailers' (TJX, ROST, and BURL) sales trend

to that of the three main public Department Stores (DDS, M, KSS). We exclude Srikar Vinjamuri