Heidelberger Druck (AO) | Hold | FY 2025/26 results: guidance supportive, but cash to stay weak

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Heidelberger Druck (AO) | Hold | FY 2025/26 results: guidance supportive, but cash to stay weak

9m sales and EUR-14m adjusted EBITDA. This is consistent with our view that the new-business narrative is

strategically relevant but not yet a near-term group earnings offset.

FY 2026/27 guidance incrementally positive

The FY 2026/27 guidance is the incremental positive versus the preliminary results and consensus. Management is guiding for

stable group sales against EUR2,293m in FY2025/26 and a noticeable improvement in the adjusted EBITDA margin from 6.6%. This

compares with company-collected FY 2026/27 consensus of EUR2,294m sales, EUR166m adjusted EBITDA and a 7.3% adjusted

EBITDA margin. In other words, the sales guidance is exactly in line with consensus, while the margin guidance is supportive but

not specific enough to fully underwrite the consensus EBITDA number.

In Print & Packaging Equipment, management expects a noticeable sales decline but a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA

margin, helped by efficiency measures and personnel transfers to HEIDELBERG Technology. Digital Solutions & Lifecycle should

see a slight sales increase but a slight margin decline, while HEIDELBERG Technology should deliver significant sales growth and

a significantly improved margin, albeit still burdened by start-up investments.

Cash remains the key quality issue. FY2025/26 FCF (company definition) was EUR-19m versus EUR51m last year, with operating

cash flow of only EUR36m, driven by lower advance payments after weaker order intake and EUR26m of restructuring payments,

while investment cash flow included the Polar asset acquisition amounting to EUR11m. The company has not yet solved the cash-

normalisation debate for FY 2026/27.