Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Flight -CentreFlightTravelCentreGroup LtdTravel(FLT.AX) Group Ltd (FLT.AX)

Earnings delay from ongoing conflict

PRICE TARGET A$16.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

A$16 blended methodology base case: ▪We see FLT as a more more scalable

Discounted cash flow. Key assumptions: WACC of 11% and terminal growth rate of 3%. model vs. pre-Covid.

P/E relative 11x (vs. 14x historical average). ▪We believe the long-term corporate

EV/EBITDA 5x (vs. 6x historical average): We feel these multiples factor in both the inherent opportunity is substantial.

volatility of travel as well as sustained double-digit CAGR through the cycle. ▪The leisure business's shift to luxury and

A$15.26 independent agents is also more durable, in

our view.Consensus Price Target Distribution A$12.60 A$19.66 international diversification MS PT ▪Increasing

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates away from the Australian leisure business

and growing corporate earnings deserve a

higher multiple in the long term, we believe.

▪We think valuation looks undemanding vs.

RISK REWARD CHART history and recent track record of market

share gains.

AUD A$22.00A$22.00(+94.35%)A$22.00(+94.35%)(+94.35%)

Consensus Rating Distribution

20 87% Overweight

13% Equal-weight

A$16.00A$16.00(+41.34%)A$16.00(+41.34%)(+41.34%) 0% Underweight

MS Rating

A$11.32A$11.32A$11.32 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Risk Reward Themes

A$6.00A$6.00(-47.00%)A$6.00(-47.00%)(-47.00%) Disruption: Negative

Secular Growth: Positive

Technology Diffusion: Positive

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target