Argentina Sovereign Credit Strategy: Momentum Keeps Building Towards Market Access

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Argentina Sovereign Credit Strategy: Momentum Keeps Building Towards Market Access

IdeaM24 billion. In April, both the current account (+US$1.3 billion) and the

financial account (+US$1.0 billion) recorded surpluses and the coming

weeks should also be strong. Our economists forecast goods exports to

reach a record just above US$100bn in 2026, supporting a current account

surplus of approximately 0.7% of GDP in cash terms. See Argentina: 2026

BOP/FX Cash Flows: Shifting to a Current Account Surplus, April 9, 2026

3. Broadening activity and falling inflation: While growth so far has been

lagging outside of agriculture, mining, and energy, our economist believes

we are approaching an inflection point. The turn should be driven by the

strong 2Q26 harvest, a pickup in investment as RIGI-approved mining

projects move to construction, and an improvement in purchasing power as

disinflation and credit resume. April CPI printed at 2.6% m/m, down from

3.4% in March, with core at 2.3% m/m. Our economist expects monthly

prints to average 2.0-2.5% in 2Q26 and around 2% in 2H26. This should all

support domestic sentiment and hence also markets. See Argentina: Nearing

a growth inflection point, May 8, 2026.

4. IFI-backed commercial financing: The IMF's second review outlined the

government's 2026 financing strategy, which includes domestic FX bonds

(US$5 billion), privatizations (US$2 billion), and IFI-backed commercial loans

of US$4 billion. With the World Bank and IADB meeting next week June 16th

and 17th, respectively, to review the underlying IFI guarantees of US$2

billion, confirmation of the commercial loans could follow in the weeks

after, with coupons of around 5.5-6.5%. See Argentina: IMF Second Review:

Our 10 Takeaways, May 26, 2026.

5.