AIBW Modeling Supports Efficacy Preservation in Varseta-M Dose Optimization (2H26E)

研报英文原文证据摘录

AIBW Modeling Supports Efficacy Preservation in Varseta-M Dose Optimization (2H26E)

Biotechnology - Oncology & Rare Diseases

Oncology - Market Overweight

CYTOMX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (CTMX) June 5, 2026

AIBW Modeling Supports Efficacy Preservation in Varseta- Rating:

M Dose Optimization (2H26E) Outperform

Price:

$3.18

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

We created a model to estimate ORRs under AIBW dosing for Varseta-M (2H26E $6

% Upside:update). Our model suggests that AIBW dosing can yield comparable efficacy 88.7%

(e.g., ORRs ~17-26% at 8.6-10 mg/kg doses) with less overexposure and reduced

View CTMX Model

toxicity. View Comp Table

Company Information

We wanted to understand how the shift from total body weight (TBW) dosing 52-Week Range $2 - $7

to adjusted-ideal body weight (AIBW) could impact Varseta-M's efficacy. Findings Market Cap. (MM) $692

from our model (email us for a copy) suggest that 8.6-10 mg/kg AIBW doses could Enterprise Value (MM) $220 Shares Out. (MM) 217.7

yield ORRs of ~17-26% (compared to 20-32% under TBW), using a BMI distribution Avg. Value Traded (MM) $11.44

for underweight, normal, overweight, and obese late-line mCRC pts (based on an SI% of Float 0.0%

Australian study adjusted for a higher proportion of obese pt in the U.S.).

We estimate Varseta-M will continue looking superior to SOC Lonsurf+bev's 6% 6

ORR and highly competitive to precem-TcT's 20.7%. Note, precem-TcT has 43% 5

4Gr3+ neutropenia (10% febrile), whereas Varseta-M's Gr3+ diarrhea rates decrease

from ~30% to ~10% in AIBW dose optimization cohorts (with prophylaxis of anti- 3

motility agent + budesonide). We continue to view Varseta-M's risk/benefit profile as 2

highly favorable for late-line mCRC pts. 1 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26