Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 8 - 12 June

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Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 8 - 12 June

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Global Macro Watch

Known Unknowns 8 - 12 June

US: CPI – A normalization after the rent payback 07 June 2026

We forecast headline CPI rose by 0.46% mom driven by another jump in energy prices. Economics Rates & FX

The y/y rate should increase from 3.8% to 4.2% -- highest since Apr 23. Meanwhile, core Global

CPI should be cooler at 0.20% (2.8% yoy). This reflects our expectations for modest core

goods (+0.05% mom), a normalization in rent, and softer core services ex rents. For the Table of Contents

policy outlook, the focus will be on the implications for core PCE inflation, especially

Known Unknowns 2

since it's been running above CPI since last Nov.

Known Unknowns (EM) 3

Euro area: The beginning of a short hiking cycle Sunday 4

We expect the ECB to hike all three policy rates by 25bp next week. With the energy Monday 4

price shock a bit larger than initially incorporated in the March forecasts (which already Tuesday 5

included a June hike), more long lasting, and with (slightly) more persistent energy price Wednesday 6

effects, the natural slope is for the ECB to deliver a quite well telegraphed hike. New Thursday 6

forecasts will show a bit less growth and more inflation in the near term but, crucially, Friday 7

still show inflation back to target by the end of the forecasting period. Research Analysts 12

Canada: BoC to remain on hold at 2.25%

Despite a technical recession following the 1Q26 contraction, we see the Bank on Antonio Gabriel Global Economist

Canada staying on hold due to upside risks to inflation and growth linked to geopolitical BofAS

tensions from the US–Israel conflict with Iran. +1antonio.gabriel@bofa.com646 743 5373

Japan: 1Q GDP revision to the downside PedroCaribbeanDiazEconomist