1Q26 Recap: Results Mostly as Expected, FY26 Revenue Outlook Reiterated; BUY

研报英文原文证据摘录

1Q26 Recap: Results Mostly as Expected, FY26 Revenue Outlook Reiterated; BUY

Investment Thesis

We view SunCar Technology Group as well-positioned to gain share in the enormous Chinese automotive market. With ~366MM

registered cars on the road and new car sales annually of ~25MM units, the People's Republic of China is the largest vehicle market

in the world. SunCar is addressing a combined TAM of approximately ~$150B split ~$20B in B2B automotive services and ~$130B

in eInsurance. Given SunCar has achieved just a ~1% share in each TAM, we estimate the company is poised to sustain double-digitCONSUMER growth over the next several years. We believe SunCar has a leading market share in both of its main service lines with significant

competitive advantages. With SDA shares trading at a single-digit multiple of forward EBITDA against double-digit revenue and

EBITDA growth, we believe shares are undervalued.AND

Upcoming Catalysts Price Performance

■ More eInsurance OEM partnerships in the gas-powered vehicle channel. $4

■ New enterprise customer wins, including new branch signings of existing banking $3.5

and/or insurance clients. $3

■ International partnerships with insurance brokers and/or insuretech firms. $2.5

$2TECHNOLOGY

Base Case Assumptions: $5 Price Target $1.5 $1

■ Automotive service revenue increases MSD per annum. $0.5

■ eInsurance maintains strong double-digit growth through greater focus on policy Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 renewals and share gains in the gas-powered vehicle channel.SERVICES SDA ■ SunCar drives further EBITDA margin expansion, reaching MSD margins in the next S&P 500 (rebased)

few years. Source: FactSet

Upside Scenario: $8/sh Company DescriptionEQUITY