Could TRIP Really Be Close To A Deal For TheFork?

研报英文原文证据摘录

Could TRIP Really Be Close To A Deal For TheFork?

Investment Thesis

Our Buy rating on TRIP is a function of several themes: 1. While the legacy hotel business faces ongoing pressure, mix has tilted

towards Viator & TheFork which should be enough to drive consolidated growth, 2. A combination of cost-cutting in the legacyDIGITAL business & maturation of the emerging assets should yield margin expansion, 3. Management has talked about exploring strategic

alternatives & there is activist involvement, which could lead to improved visibility on underlying SOTP value.

Upcoming Catalysts Price PerformanceSERVICES

■ 2Q results (timing TBD) $20

■ Monthly site traffic/receipt data $18

$16EQUITY $14

$12

Base Case Assumptions: $15 Price Target $10

Our $15 PT is based on 6x our '26E EBITDA estimate, which is at the lower end of TRIP's $8

historical 5-9x multiple range given the challenges in the legacy hotel business. Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26RESEARCH

TRIP

S&P 500 (rebased)

Source: FactSet

Upside Scenario: $20/sh Company Description

Our $20 upside case for TRIP is based on an SOTP-based analysis: TRIP is a hotel review site,

experiences booking engine and

■ 5x '26 EBITDA for the legacy hotel business restaurant reservation platform, among

■ 2.5x '26 revenue for Viator-TheFork + a 20% HoldCo discount other things. TripAdvisor got its start as

a hotel review site with an underlying

lead-generation financial model, but has

extended over the last several years into

Downside Scenario: $9/sh experiences and restaurants.

Our $9 downside case for TRIP is based on a multiple of 4x our '26 EBITDA estimate,

which aligns w/the post-pandemic multiple trough for the stock.

BTIG, LLC Jake Fuller (212) 882-2319 www.btig.com