MatsukiyoCocokara & Co.: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

MatsukiyoCocokara & Co.: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– MatsukiyoCocokara- MatsukiyoCocokara& Co. (3088.T) & Co. (3088.T)

Watch for new growth story while maintaining & improving on high earnings levels

PRICE TARGET ¥2,800 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

PT of ¥2,800 is based on P/E of 19.7x and F3/27e EPS of ¥143.6. The multiple is the average Having generated ¥30bn in post-merger

P/E based on Bloomberg forecasts since F3/21 2H (Oct 2020 onward), when Covid impact synergies, the firm is now making growth

bottomed out. investments in human capital and systems

with a view to improving earnings over the

¥3,049 long term.

Consensus Price Target Distribution ¥2,450.00 ¥3,500.00 Keys ahead include exhibiting faster sales

MS PT growth and better margins, to lift market

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates expectations for growth.

RISK REWARD CHART Consensus Rating Distribution

67% Overweight

¥4,700¥4,700(+99.32%)¥4,700(+99.32%)(+99.32%)

JPY 33% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

¥2,800¥2,800(+18.74%)¥2,800(+18.74%)(+18.74%)

¥2,358¥2,358¥2,358

¥1,800¥1,800(-23.66%)¥1,800(-23.66%)(-23.66%)

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE ¥4,700 BASE CASE ¥2,800 BEAR CASE ¥1,800

2-digit OP rise from F3/27; synergy, inbound 1-digit OP growth from F3/27 OP falls from F3/27; strategic

sales costs/inbound sales

Our base case assumes single-digit OP

In addition to thorough KPI management, growth from F3/27. Inbound sales decline amid an increase in

synergies continue to be generated in strategic costs, resulting in OP declining

logistics/systems, and recovery in inbound P/E of 19.7x is the average multiple based on from F3/27.