Siemens Energy AG: Caught in multiple crosswinds. Supply-demand dynamics are a valid concern for 2030

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Siemens Energy AG: Caught in multiple crosswinds. Supply-demand dynamics are a valid concern for 2030

IdeaMPlease let us know if you would like a copy of our gas turbine supply model, and

for our previous work on Gas turbine capacity: (1) Industry capacity additions in

context (Sept-25) (2) The capacity conundrum. (Jan-26).

For our recent Siemens Energy reports, see (1) Siemens Energy. Getting into thin air.

Stay OW (April-26), (2) Siemens Energy: Remove as a top-pick, but stay OW (March-

26)

Backdrop. Siemens Energy shares are currently caught in multiple cross currents,

and the share price is now -17% off the recent highs. It is clear that a broader

correction has started in stocks exposed to the AI theme, but beyond this there are

more specific concerns on Siemens Energy driving the recent share price weakness.

These are (1) investor concerns on future Gas turbine / Power solutions over supply,

(2) Gas turbine orders peaking in 2026 therefore less scope for future order beats,

and (3) a lack of identifiable catalysts for Siemens Energy before it issues new 2030

targets alongside FY26 results in November-26. Ultimately, as the rate of order

beats / scope for consensus upgrades subsides, it is natural for the debate to shift to

the durability of EPS growth beyond 2030. Our 2030 EPS forecast is €13.5, and

clearly the applied multiple (10-20x 2030 PE ratio) would be very different

depending on the view around whether the 2030 EPS will represent peak earnings,

or whether the market believes Siemens Energy can continue to generate double-

digit EPS growth into the next decade.

We update our Gas turbine and DC power solutions model, and get to 135GW of

supply by 2030 (vs our Jan-26 update which was 116GW of 2030 capacity). For