Ciccarelli’s Checks: Manheim Used Vehicle Index +0.3% MoM/ +3.6% YOY (adj.) in May; AAP, AZO, GPC, ORLY, KMX relevant

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ciccarelli’s Checks: Manheim Used Vehicle Index +0.3% MoM/ +3.6% YOY (adj.) in May; AAP, AZO, GPC, ORLY, KMX relevant

Truist Securities

Our CVM is an interactive, relative valuation model, enabling investors to see how a stock has traded vs. the market (S&P 500) over the

last 3 years to better assess a target multiple. For example, if a stock has historically traded at 21x FTM EPS, while the market has traded

at 18x FTM estimates, then the stock would historically trade at an ~17% premium to the market. We then assess whether we believe the

stock should trade at a discount, in-line or at a premium to this historical rate based on our fundamental outlook for the company. We then

provide what we view as realistic upside/downside scenarios for key financial inputs to assess potential ranges for the stock.

Risks to Our Rating and Price Target:

Downside risks:

Reversal/slowing of auto part industry growth drivers – More acceptance of public transportation would reduce personal vehicle usage,

while falling used vehicle values could cause consumers to trade into different vehicles rather than fixing/maintaining their existing ones.

Demand destruction from inflation for auto parts – While auto parts are largely a needs-based business, the DIY segment tends to

skew towards lower-to-middle income consumers and if inflationary pressures remain elevated, it could cause demand destruction and/

or trade down activity.

Economic or industrial production slowdowns – The auto part segment can often be less impacted by economic swings due to its

needs-based nature. However, while we believe mix shifts have lessened its correlation with macro production indexes, Motion Industries

may still be susceptible to some degree to macro pressures.

Upside risks