Fortum: Preview 2Q26 – Outages and lower Nordic power prices weigh on 2Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

Fortum: Preview 2Q26 – Outages and lower Nordic power prices weigh on 2Q

Barclays | Fortum

we see a compelling DC growth story across the UK, Spain and, importantly for Fortum, the

Nordic region. Nearly two-thirds of Europe’s 34GW DC pipeline sits in these markets, supported

by structural advantages that favour Nordic expansion, including low power prices, natural

cooling, district-heating integration, real-estate availability and government support. With a

European DC pipeline of ~66GW in development, representing ~€624bn of investment, even

partial delivery would tighten power balances materially. In our view, this leaves Fortum well

placed to benefit, given its scalable, low-carbon Nordic generation base and proximity to some

of Europe’s fastest-growing DC clusters.

More broadly, we remain Positive on European Utilities, supported by structural growth

drivers and still-supportive valuations: As set out in our sector report At an inflection point:

demand, data centres, and re-ratings (29 January 2026), we continue to see attractive upside

potential in European Utilities despite the sector’s strong performance over the past year (SX6P

+24% vs. European market SXXP +12%). We think the sector is benefiting from rising power and

investment demand, a supportive macro backdrop and valuations that remain undemanding as

European Utilities transitions from a low-growth to a higher-growth sector. Datacentres provide

additional upside potential on top of this broader re-rating story and, in our view, remain

largely unpriced in current utility valuations. We forecast average medium-term TSR CAGR of

~12%, driven by a high-single-digit EPS CAGR and dividend yield of around 4%, before including

any further DC upside.