Bachem Holding AG: 1H26 Preview: Raise PT to CHF70 on expanded Sales/Capex model; Building K phasing implies 1H26 cons downside

研报英文原文证据摘录

Bachem Holding AG: 1H26 Preview: Raise PT to CHF70 on expanded Sales/Capex model; Building K phasing implies 1H26 cons downside

Barclays | Bachem Holding AG

Model update: Revisiting our CDMO modelling methodology, we expand our analysis to

forecast BANB sales and capex on a per facility by division basis, maintaining an assumed 1:1

ratio between growth capex spent and peak sales at full utilisation. This involves assuming

ranked POS assumptions for the necessary capex of future projects with lower POS for the

commensurate sales to reflect the lower certainty around demand, e.g. Sisslerfeld with 100%

POS for capex and 75% for sales. We also update our cash flow modelling in the wake of BANB's

recently expanded RCF worth CHF500m; and while we continue to anticipate the use of

customer pre-payments to support capacity expansion for now, we note that even in a

scenario with no further customer funding, on our forecasts, BANB is well placed to

maintain ND/EBITDA <2x to 2030E, despite continued expansion plans. Revising our top-line

mid-term forecasts for FY26/27/28 by -2.1%/-1.8%/-2.3%, we also reflect the new FX rates,

but with adjusted COGS/opex to reflect the likely operational expansion benefit as utilisation

ramps, our EBITDA changes by -4.5%/+3.8%/+5.8%. For FY26, the most significant changes to

our forecasts account for our new ramp-up assumptions that better reflect Building K activity in

1H26 driving up inventory only, with sales expected to be 2H26 weighted, and to leave 1H26

margins broadly in-line with 1H23/1H24 (BARCe 1H26 EBITDA CER margin 24.5% vs 1H23 24.1%,

1H24 23.9%). Due to this significant phasing expectations, ahead of 1H26 results, for BANB we

now sit notably below 1H26 Bloomberg consensus sales (-9.8%) and EBITDA forecasts

(-36.7%).