Novartis: CFO call: strong growth anticipated, despite upcoming LOEs, given base biz growth, organic pipeline and Business Development

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Novartis: CFO call: strong growth anticipated, despite upcoming LOEs, given base biz growth, organic pipeline and Business Development

Equity Research

European Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

8 June 2026

Novartis

CFO call: strong growth

anticipated, despite upcoming

NOVN.S/NOVN SW EQUAL WEIGHTLOEs, given base biz growth,

European Pharmaceuticals,

Biotechnology & Life NEUTRAL

Sciencesorganic pipeline and Business

Price Target CHF 120.00

Price (05-Jun-26) CHF 117.98Development Potential Upside/Downside +1.7%

Reit. conf. in +5-6% '25-30 sales CAGR & 40%+ mgn by '29. Nov Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

CMD will see sales guide to '31, strong growth despite LOEs.

Pipeline, BTK remi could exceed $10bn peak, if broader Biotechnology & Life Sciences

readouts (MS/HS) +ve, while Lp(a) pela could offer LT u/s, but James Gordon +44 (0)20 7116 2784

NOVN noted follow-on mols and a slow launch if +ve. james.gordon@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

On Wednesday, we hosted a call with NOVN CFO, Mukul Mehta (MM), as part of the Barclays Yihan Li, PhD

EU Healthcare C-Suite series. MM reiterated confidence in the company’s +5-6% 2025-2030 +44 (0)20 3555 3563

yihan.li@barclays.comsales CAGR, even with 2026 LOE pressure from Entresto and 2029 US LOE for Cosentyx. NOVN

plans to extend the duration of the mid-term guide to 2031 at the CMD in Nov’26, which will

encompass the ‘31 Kisqali/Kesimpta LOEs. The to 40%+ core operating margin by 2029 was also Sidhartha Modi

reiterated, (vs. 37.3% for Q1‘26), with this already capturing benefits from AI efficiencies and +91 (0)22 6175 1326

sidhartha.modi@barclays.com

operating leverage, versus Avidity R&D spend and LOEs. On the pipeline, we noted a positive