US Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology "Obesity doc panel dinner: outlook on..."

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US Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology "Obesity doc panel dinner: outlook on..."

rice (approx ~$150 cheaper vs injectables at $300 vs $450 at the higher Associate Analyst

efficacious doses). Interestingly, the majority (75%) of the pts on the orals are switchers roy.zawadzki@ubs.com

from injectables. While yes, the launch is still underway, they each have written +1-212-713 1139

Foundayo scripts and both docs estimate 75% of their oral utilization will be on Anson Dang, PhD

Foundayo vs oral Wegovy in the coming years specifically because they fear the food Associate Analyst

effect with oral wegovy could lead to lower compliance in the real world. In other words, anson.dang@ubs.com

if you had a choice, it would be Foundayo… thus, we predict that Foundayo scripts +1-212-649 7544

could potentially pick up and accelerate over 12 months and eventually catch up or

surpass oral Wegovy in the coming year or two.

(3) How about those monthlies? In general the view of the PFE and AMGN monthly

drugs are that they are incremental and "fine". However, they were also clear that over

the next few years when the drugs are available, they both see up to 20-30% of pts

could be on a monthly as a swap drug because these are chronic therapies after all and

one injection a month is seen as easier vs four injections a month. This assumes that the

overall efficacy is in the high teens and in the ball park of tirzepatide and in other words,

"not 15%". In many cases, the majority of patients on weekly injections don't find this a

hassle and the idea of dosing every week adds to the view that the drug is working and

providing consistent efficacy. These comments were surprisingly positive to us and well

above consensus for a monthly drug market share of 10-15%

(4) Additional tidbits: