EXOR (1K) | Buy | Cash flow set to rebound

研报英文原文证据摘录

EXOR (1K) | Buy | Cash flow set to rebound

EXOR Buy | Target Price: EUR91.00

Momentum shifting

Exor's share price has been under pressure since it peaked at EUR105 in H1 2024, and has now

corrected to EUR66. Coincidentally, 2024 represented a turning point in earnings and FCF

momentum at the level of the underlying portfolio.

The fall in underlying portfolio earnings in 2024 and 2025 was mostly driven by Stellantis,

followed by CNH. We expect the rebound in future earnings to be mainly driven by growth at all

portfolio companies, with Stellantis representing the largest contributor.

The fall in underlying portfolio FCF in 2024 and 2025 was also mostly driven by Stellantis,

followed by CNH. We expect the rebound in Exor's share of its future FCF to be driven again by

growth at all portfolio companies, with Stellantis representing the largest contributor.

Chart 1:We expect underlying portfolio EPS to rebound in 2026 Chart 2:We expect underlying portfolio FCF to rebound in 2026

Source: Visible Alpha, Kepler Cheuvreux. Yield is adjusted for weight of listed portfolio within Source: Visible Alpha, Kepler Cheuvreux. Yield is adjusted for weight of listed portfolio within

companie's NAV. companie's NAV.

We expect the Holding FCF per share to trough in 2026E, dragged by the dividend cut at

Stellantis, and to gradually recover as from 2027E, supported by improving FCF generation at

the portfolio companies. Higher Holding FCF as from 2027E should, in turn, support higher cash

returns to shareholders, mainly in the form of share buybacks, according to our expectation.

Chart 3:We expect Holding FCF per share to rebound in 2027 Chart 4:Share buybacks should reappear in 2027E and 2028E.

Source: Visible Alpha, Kepler Cheuvreux Source: Visible Alpha, Kepler Cheuvreux