TXRH: Thoughts on First Confirmed New World Screwworm Infection in the US

研报英文原文证据摘录

TXRH: Thoughts on First Confirmed New World Screwworm Infection in the US

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Logan Reich, CFA (Analyst)

(646) 618-6870, logan.reich@rbccm.com

Emir Akdogan (Senior Associate)

(212) 301-1601, emir.akdogan@rbccm.com

June 4, 2026 Outperform

NASDAQ: TXRH; USD 161.30 Texas Roadhouse, Inc. Price Target USD 210.00RESEARCH Thoughts on First Confirmed New World Scenario Analysis*

Screwworm Infection in the US Downside Current Price Upside

Our view: The first confirmed case of screwworm cattle infection in the Scenario Price Target Scenario

US is driving TXRH stock underperformance (down 5.6% since 6/2), which 130.00 161.30 210.00 275.00

we view as an opportunity. Despite feeder cattle futures up ~3.1-3.4% 19% 31% 71%

vs. yesterday, we don't currently anticipate this will require TXRH to raise *Implied Total Returns

their FY26 commodity inflation guidance, though we'll closely monitor any Key Statistics

Shares O/S (MM): 66.1 Market Cap (MM): 10,665EQUITY further infections and beef prices (see our weekly commodity price tracker Dividend: 1.00 Yield: 0.6%

here). Since the company reported Q1 earnings, feeder futures prices are Float (MM): NA Tr. 12 ROE: NA

down 3.5-4.5% and had been on a downward trajectory YTD. Debt to Cap: NA Enterprise Val. (MM): 11,489

Avg. Daily Volume: 1,241,589

3-Yr. Est. EPS Growth: NA

Key points:

Recall at our 5/14 NDR with the CFO (note here), the company noted they RBC Estimates

expected screwworm cases to increase in the near-term given warmer FY Dec 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

weather with infections crossing the border into the US flagged as a Revenue 5,373.3 5,878.1 6,549.5 7,142.9

possibility. In our conversation with IR today, we received no indication that EPS, Ops Diluted 6.47 6.10 6.45 7.91