metal&ROCK: Scenarios for US Copper Tariffs

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metal&ROCK: Scenarios for US Copper Tariffs

Idea

June 8, 2026 07:24 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Mmetal&ROCK | Europe Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

Commodities Strategist

Scenarios for US Copper Tariffs Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +44 20 7677-6937

Carlos De Alba

A decision on US refined copper import tariffs is due sometime EquityCarlos.De.Alba@morganstanley.comAnalyst +1 212 761-4927

in 2H26. Advanced notice of tariff implementation would be the

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

most bullish scenario for 2H26, while ruling out tariffs would be Ben Kelson

the most bearish, removing the ~2.5% of global copper going to ResearchBen.Kelson@morganstanley.comAssociate +44 20 7677-1392

the US for stockpiling. Martijn Rats, CFA

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6618

Key Takeaways

We expect a decision sometime after 30th June, once President Trump has Exhibit 1 : Using forward curve differentials,

received an update on domestic markets from the Secretary of Commerce. the copper market is pricing 43% chance of a

Most bullish = Advanced notice of a 15% tariff from Jan 2027, driving COMEX and 15% tariff in place by Jan 2027 and 73% by

LME copper higher and tightening LME spreads. Less notice would be less bullish. Dec 2027

Most bearish = Refined copper tariffs are ruled out completely, putting the 2.5% 40% COMEX-LME Copper Spread (%)

35% Spot arb 3m Arb Jan-27 Dec-27

of copper supply currently going to the US for stockpiling at risk. 30%

Status quo = Decision is delayed, with not enough evidence to make a decision 25%20%

for now. 15%

10%

5%

What is the upcoming decision? The US is due to decide whether to put in place a 0%

Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26