UK Property Learnings from earnings

研报英文原文证据摘录

UK Property Learnings from earnings

Neil Green, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4478 09 June 2026 C A Z E N O V E

neil.d.green@jpmorgan.com

Figure 3: FY27 Earnings Yield Figure 4: FY28 Discount to NAV

9% 0%

6%

-25%

3%

0% -50%

GPE British Land Big Yellow Landsec Workspace GPE British Land Big Yellow Landsec Workspace

Source: JPMorgan, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source: JPMorgan, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

GPE - executing on plan, watch for further lettings (The Delft),

disposals (30 Duke Street) and potential capital returns

GPE’s call to raise equity and lean into the central London office cycle was endorsed

with results that revealed a record leasing year, prime office rental growth of 7.2% and a

22% revaluation gain on development. For the coming year, they expect underlying

rental growth to continue at the same pace as 4-7%, with prime office rents rising 4-8%.

From here - and aside from general market news on demand vs. supply - the market will

be watching for: (1) further letting progress at developments such as The Delft and

Whittington House; (2) disposals, with £200m of near-term sales targeted with 30 Duke

Street the most likely sale this year. From there, it will be interesting to see whether

GPE chooses to retain this capital and re-invest in further projects, or return capital to

shareholders. The latter is something they have done before, and explicitly discussed the

potential for at their (bullish in our view) FY results conf. call. (here)

In terms of estimates, we've left our operational assumptions broadly unchanged with

MSD% portfolio-wide rental growth continuing for the coming year. We do, however,

increase disposal volumes and bring them forward vs. prior forecasts. As a result, our