Voyxact eGFR Data: Slope Favors Atacicept, with Caveats of Important Trial Differences

研报英文原文证据摘录

Voyxact eGFR Data: Slope Favors Atacicept, with Caveats of Important Trial Differences

Voyxact eGFR Data: Slope Favors Atacicept, with Caveats of Important Trial Differences Equity Research

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Vera Therapeutics, Inc. (VERA)

Investment Thesis

We rate VERA Overweight, as we see a strong and competitive clinical profile for atacicept based on IgAN data, which is supportive of

disease-modifying MOA. We think atacicept is poised to capture a significant share of the market despite the competitive landscape, and

we estimate $2.3B unadjusted peak sales worldwide. Additionally, we see positive read-through to other immune-mediated diseases,

including membranous nephropathy and anti-nephrin podocytopathies.

Target Price Valuation for VERA

Our 12-month price target of $70/sh is based on our DCF analysis. We model an 11% discount rate consistent with biotech peers in

late-stage trials and reflecting development risks, and -5% terminal growth rate to account for a limited exclusivity period beyond our

projection period (through 2035). We estimate 80% probability of success in IgAN and 25%/15% for pMN/anti-nephrin podocytopathies.

Risks to Our Price Target and Rating for VERA

Downside Risks:

• Competitor B-cell agents show better efficacy or new atacicept data reveals safety signals limiting market opportunity for VERA.

• Atacicept data in additional indications is negative, limiting indication expansion.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX)

We rate VRTX Overweight, as we see a favorable setup post pain reset, supported by a strong CF business. With investor focus now off

pain and kidney pipeline offering multiple shots on goal for another CF-like opportunity, we see limited downside and meaningful upside

with multiple catalysts in 2026.