ORLY: HQ Visit Takes; Driving Through the Wall of Worry

研报英文原文证据摘录

ORLY: HQ Visit Takes; Driving Through the Wall of Worry

32 w/ 400 hubs in nearly every 2027E 0.80 E 0.96 E 1.03 E 0.86 E 3.65 E

major MSA; Stafford serves ~60-80 stores today (including 7 acquired locations near EPS 2025 :Annual: 2025 quarterly EPS do not sum to total due to

Baltimore) w/ a 5-10yr build to ~300 in the metro (up to Philly); 2) AI use cases include share count. Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

inventory/DC mgmt (catalog specs, VIN scanning, etc.) & labor scheduling w/ heavier NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

usage on the DIFM side; DC automation rising; 3) Private label mix is 50%+ w/ hard parts

much higher; ORLY doesn't have a target private label mix. Zachary Fadem, CPA

Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Zachary.Fadem@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8018

Other takes. 1) Share gains broad-based but ORLY just ~8% of US DIFM market (~$95B David Lantz

TAM); 2) EV tail risk deemed more limited (vs several yrs ago) w/ service network a hurdle, Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

very high avg ticket & fewer parts variations; 3) Oil spikes likely add some SG&A pressure, David.Lantz@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5044

but impacts viewed manageable & embedded in FY26 guide; 4) Higher self-insurance Anthony Trainor

rates and rising claim exposure pressured SG&A in ‘25; Impact eases through ‘26; 5) Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

ORLY's Analyst Day is set for 9/17 in Atlanta. Anthony.Trainor@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-1953

Taylor Brimberg

On shares. ORLY shares face a wall of worry around peak comps, softer underlying Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

volumes (deferral), lower 2H inflation & positioning away from Consumer (for AI, etc.).