OSCR: Upgrading to EW on Greater Confidence in Exchange Market Trajectory in 2026, PT to $20

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OSCR: Upgrading to EW on Greater Confidence in Exchange Market Trajectory in 2026, PT to $20

Equity Research

Rating Change — June 4, 2026

Managed Care

Oscar Health, Inc.

Upgrading to EW on Greater Confidence in Exchange Equal Weight

Market Trajectory in 2026, PT to $20 Price Target: $20.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

We are upgrading OSCR to Equal Weight and raising PT to $20 from $11. We are now Rating EW UW

increasingly comfortable with the trajectory of the exchange market in 2026, but visibility Price Target $20.00 $11.00 81.8%

remains low beyond that, and we expect payment integrity will remain a focus. EBITDA 524.1 393.4 33.2%

(MM) 2026

Early Exchange Read. Based on our deep-dive analysis of stat filings, it appears EBITDA 729.7 483.3 51.0%

enrollment and morbidity outcomes on the exchanges are trending better than feared, (MM) 2027

with the industry showing material MLR improvement while seeming to book risk Rev. (MM) 2026 17.16B 18.82B -8.8%

adjustment too conservatively (opposite of last year's dynamic). Florida, OSCR's most Rev. (MM) 2027 15.22B 15.50B -1.8%

important state at ~64% of premiums, has only seen membership decline 13.5% y/y, with

MLRs improving 370bps y/y despite 640bps of potential conservatism on risk adj. Ticker OSCR

Upside/(Downside) to Target (2.4)%

Key Model Inputs. OSCR guided to ~20% net risk adjustment payable (as % of direct Price (06/03/2026) $20.50

premiums) in 2026 vs. ~18.5% in 2025. We assume ~500bps higher risk adjustment, as 52 Week Range $10.69 - 25.58

we remain somewhat skeptical it truly makes sense for OSCR to report the lowest Q1 Market Cap (MM) $6,760

MLR in group given pricing strategy / gold shift / significant membership growth. We also

Enterprise Value (MM) $4,416