First Read: China Basic Materials "Shanxi coal mine safety enforcement i..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: China Basic Materials "Shanxi coal mine safety enforcement i..."

Global Research

4 June 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesChina Basic Materials

Shanxi coal mine safety enforcement intensifies Asia

Basic Materials

Sharon Ding

Safety inspections hit harder than expected, weighing on restarts Analyst

We hosted a Mysteel coal expert call. Since May 23, 134 mines in Shanxi have been sharon.ding@ubs.com

suspended (~154mt raw capacity). As of June 3, 75 remain offline (~76mt), while 59 +852-2971 6284

have restarted (~78mt). Expert highlights intensified regulatory enforcement, with 10 Elvis Liu

inspection teams across Shanxi conducting unannounced on-site checks and triggering Associate Analyst

immediate shutdowns for safety breaches. This increased scrutiny is expected to persist elvis.liu@ubs.com

through June, with policy focus likely shifting to mandated safety investment in July– +852-3712 3052

August. Restart progress is tracking below market expectations (large-scale restarts in 7 Robin Chen

days). Even relatively compliant SOEs (c.70% of Shanxi met coal capacity) typically see a Associate Analyst

20–30% output reduction post-restart as prior overproduction and capacity transfers robin.chen@ubs.com

unwind; disruption to private mines is likely more pronounced. Overall restart +852-2971 8678

momentum remains weak. Under varying restart scenarios, expert estimates a 5–15mt

reduction in China’s 2026 refined met coal supply; we estimated a 15mt decline in 26.

Domestic supply elasticity constrained; Mongolia and Australia imports in focus

Expert sees limited near-term domestic supply upside. Tightened inspections in Shanxi

cap local offsets, while other provinces offer little support: Eastern and Southern