EHang Holdings "Commercial progress slower than expected; downgrade to Neutral"

研报英文原文证据摘录

EHang Holdings "Commercial progress slower than expected; downgrade to Neutral"

EHang Holdings UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP Thesisa guideMapto our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions Q: What is the potential market size of eVTOLs?

From 2026-30, we expect sightseeing to be the main application for eVTOLs and China's eVTOL

market size to reach Rmb3bn by 2030E, of which Rmb2.5bn is related to sightseeing eVTOLs. eVTOLs

offer travel ranges of up to 30km and flight times of roughly 25 minutes, making them an attractive

option for tourist sightseeing. Visibility for wide adoption of eVTOLs in air taxi and intercity

commuting is still low before 2030E.

Q: Is EHang best positioned to benefit from China's eVTOL growth?

Probably. Due to stringent safety standards, the eVTOL industry has high entry barriers and thus low

competition. EHang is a Chinese startup in passenger-carrying eVTOLs. It is the world's first eVTOL

maker to have its product validated and to start commercial operations; thus, it has a first-mover

advantage and could hold over 50% market share by 2030E, in our view.

UBS VIEW EHang's share price has declined over 20% YTD as the commercialisation of passenger-carrying

eVTOLs has progressed more slowly than expected. While we still like EHang's unique position in

China's passenger eVTOL market, we cut our 2026-28E shipment and revenue forecasts by 50-70%.

With the slower-than-expected revenue growth, we now believe the company will reach breakeven

in 2029-30E rather than 2026-27E. Our revenue forecast is 30-50% below consensus. Downgrade to

Neutral.

EVIDENCE 1) The company has gained Type Certificate in Oct 2023 and Operation Certificate in March 2025,

but the commercial operation has not fully started until now.