European Airlines and Airports "UBS Evidence Lab inside: Capacity – the ..."

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European Airlines and Airports "UBS Evidence Lab inside: Capacity – the ..."

Powered by Lab Global4 JuneResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

European Airlines and Airports Equities

Europe including UKUBS Evidence Lab inside: Capacity – the long and

short of it... Airlines

Jarrod Castle, CFA

Analyst

jarrod.castle@ubs.com

The event doldrums - market forces at play +44-20-7568 8883

Empirically (Click link) 2Q is a period where less than 50% of the time airline share prices Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

rise. The backdrop of the Middle East might mean further positive performance if the Analyst

conflict is resolved. However, in the absence of resolution we see airline share prices cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

drifting in line with market/macro forces, until we get to the 2Q reporting season the +44-20-7568 4375

second half of July. Nevertheless, over the last 30 days to 1 June European airline share Amal Patel

prices have seen strong positive share price performance on the back of expectations of Analyst

Middle Eastern conflict resolution. Wizz will report FY26 results on 11th June but have amal.patel@ubs.com

already updated guidance in May (Click). +44-20-7568 3973

Ivar Billfalk-Kelly

Long haul capacity restraint but more needed from short haul Analyst

For 2Q26 on long haul supply is tightening, with the Middle East and Caribbean now ivar.billfalk-kelly@ubs.com

showing material falls in 2Q26 capacity. The revised data for 2Q26 long haul capacity +44-20-7568 3240

shows -c1% (previous c1%), while 3Q26 is c4% (prev: c5%). Nevertheless, short haul

has seen smaller adjustments so far for both 2Q and 3Q26, with 2Q showing growth of

4% (vs prev c5%) and 3Q capacity showing growth of c5% (unchanged).

Airports: Fraport most -ve 30 day revisions to S26 capacity driven by Lufthansa