UBS: Fast Take: Colruyt Group N.V "ALDI in discussions with unions to open s..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

UBS: Fast Take: Colruyt Group N.V "ALDI in discussions with unions to open s..."

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 14.0%

Forecast dividend yield 4.3%

Forecast stock return 18.2%

Market return assumption 7.8%

Forecast excess return 10.5%

Company Description

Colruyt Group NV is a leading grocery retailer in Belgium (>28% market share as of

September 2025), including retail (>80% of sales), wholesale & food service and other

support activity. Colruyt positions itself as the lowest price grocer in Belgium, operating a

portfolio of 750+ own stores and c1,000 franchise stores across Belgium and Luxembourg

under the Colruyt, Okay, Cru, Bio-Planet and Newpharma brands. The company offers a wide

range of fresh and frozen foods, meat, wines, coffee and non-food items. As of March 2026,

the Colruyt family owned 79% of the company with the remaining 21% as free-float.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value COLR on a DCF basis. The main risk facing COLR is a price war, we believe. The

probability of a price war rises when major imbalances between supply and demand exist.

Consumers' tastes and preferences can also shift. For instance, they may become more

accepting of price-focused operators carrying only limited ranges. Other risks include changes

in industry consumption growth (for instance, driven by real wage growth) as well as

agricultural cost inflation which the grocers are unable to pass through to consumers, and risk

of high inflation in Belgium which directly impacts wage costs due to the wage indexation

system here. Regulatory risks are normally low but there have been instances where

regulators act to protect small suppliers, for instance, by reducing payment terms.

Colruyt Group N.V 4 June 2026 ab 2