First Read: Motor Oil "Three deals in renewables energy" (Neutral) Kishmariya

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: Motor Oil "Three deals in renewables energy" (Neutral) Kishmariya

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -1.0%

Forecast dividend yield 4.5%

Forecast stock return 3.6%

Market return assumption 8.7%

Forecast excess return -5.1%

Company Description

Motor Oil is the smaller of the two refining companies in Greece. Its operations comprise a

single complex refinery in Corinth, which ranks among the most sophisticated in Europe, with

a Nelson complexity of 12.6. The facility accounts for ~35% of domestic refining capacity.

Motor Oil also owns Avin Oil and Shell Hellas, which gives it a market share of more than 30%

in Greek fuel retail. In July 2025, Motor Oil and GEK Terna formed a JV, making it a top 3

player in Greek electricity markets. The largest single shareholder is Motor Oil Holdings,

controlled by the Vardinoyannis family, with 40% ownership.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Among the key upside/downside risks to our Motor Oil valuation we highlight: Macro risks

around oil & refining margin dynamics; higher/lower utilisation rates vs our base case; higher/

lower logistics/insurance costs, due to a European embargo on Russian oil implementation;

higher/lower costs vs our base case; unforeseen developments on dividend payouts/buyback

programme; and a faster/slower scale up of Motor Oil's PowerGen business. Wider risks to

refining stocks such as Motor Oil include the volatility of oil and oil product prices thus

affecting the refining margin achieved. Oil prices and refining margins can be affected by

changes in global economic conditions, oil and oil product supply and demand changes,

changes in global refining capacity, changes in the cost of logistic services such as shipping,