US Steel Sector "Rebar: Near Term Tightness, 2028 Oversupply" Jones

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US Steel Sector "Rebar: Near Term Tightness, 2028 Oversupply" Jones

May, effectively offsetting

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what had been expected to be a meaningful import hole. That said, the setup now

looks much more constructive into 2H26: Green Markets noted very few bookings Daniel Major

Analyst have been concluded over the past ~60 days, as war-related freight inflation and

daniel.major@ubs.com

higher FOB prices have compressed import arbitrage to uneconomic levels. Using

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South Korea as the example, landed values have risen from the low/mid-$800s/t

earlier in the year to roughly the high-$900s/t delivered, versus US domestic

around ~$1,025/t, leaving insufficient trader margin. Turkey is similarly

uneconomic, Mexico remains constrained by AD duties even with a future reset

lower, and Egypt is effectively out. After ~600kt in 1H26, Green Markets expects

imports to slow to just ~200-300kt in 2H26, which is a key support to near-term

domestic pricing.

Domestic capacity: The Hybar ramp has been faster than expected, but it is

being absorbed for now. Green Market's initial 2026 framework assumed a

softer Hybar start; instead, the mill reached ~80% utilization by April. Hybar has

reportedly sold out month-by-month and is currently quoting July shipments,

suggesting tons are being absorbed rather than immediately destabilizing the

market. Hybar’s commercial strategy also looks to be working: management has

targeted large independents frustrated by competing against vertically integrated

downstream fabricators. Green Markets indicated Hybar has already taken

meaningful share from incumbent mills in certain regions. Pricing discipline has

also differed from incumbents: rather than publicly following CMC/Nucor increase