Trafigura: A record year in sight?

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Trafigura: A record year in sight?

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Trafigura

A record year in sight?

Credit Analysis

Maintain OW on $NC27 hybrids. Add senior $30s at OW. 04 June 2026

Trafigura reported near-record 1H26 results with gross margins increasing to 7.2% from High Yield Credit

4.9% in 1H25, supported by increasing commodity prices and strong demand for its Singapore

supply chain services. We expect FY26 earnings to be robust on elevated market Metals & Mining

volatility and Trafigura's sizable access to financing. We maintain our Overweight William Dennis

recommendation on the $NC27 hybrids on attractive yield (5.5%) for its c. 1 year Research Analyst

duration, continued commitment to the hybrid market and solid credit metrics/liquidity MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 1251

despite recent governance/control concerns. We also add the senior $30s at Overweight william.dennis@bofa.com

on significant tightening potential at current spreads (c. z+150bps) supported by

continued earnings upside given sustained commodity market volatility.

Price and volume tailwinds drive earnings

Trafigura reported underlying EBITDA of $7.9bn for 1H26 (March end) vs $3.9bn in 1H25

putting EBITDA margins at 5.6% vs 3.3% last year. Performance was driven by higher

commodity prices and strong volume growth especially in oil and petroleum products

(+21% yoy). In Energy, Trafigura also benefitted from participation in US Strategic

Petroleum Reserve releases. Bulk minerals volumes rose 6% yoy, while non-ferrous

metals volumes were flat. Gross margins were at 7.2% up from 4.9% in 1H25,

sequentially higher vs the 5.1% at 2H25 (see Exhibit 2). Management noted 1Q26 (Dec.

end) was the second-best 1Q on record.

Stable leverage with significant liquidity position