US Banks: Expert Insights w/ Moody’s: Perspective on capital proposals, private credit risk

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US Banks: Expert Insights w/ Moody’s: Perspective on capital proposals, private credit risk

Expert Insights: Takeaways

Guest speakers: Warren Kornfeld, SVP, Megan Fox, Associate Managing

Director, and Robin Oh, VP and Senior Analyst, Moody’s Financial Institutions

Group

U.S. Macro Outlook: Resilience vs. Emerging Risks

Moody’s frames its view of the banking system through a 12–18 month “banking system

outlook,” and the recent shift back to a stable outlook reflects a more constructive

starting point. The key driver has been the resilience of both the U.S. economy and bank

asset quality, despite earlier concerns tied to market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and

pockets of credit stress.

The base case assumes modest but durable economic growth, with loan performance

holding up even against more challenging headlines across select sectors. However,

Moody’s highlights two areas of risk that sit just below the surface. First, capital could

drift lower as regulatory clarity reduces the need for precautionary buffers that banks

have been holding over the last several years. Second, loosening regulatory oversight or

supervision could incrementally increase risk for creditors, even if not immediately

visible in financial metrics.

The key takeaway is that while the system is currently stable, the margin of safety is

supported by past conservatism, and any normalization—whether in capital or

supervision—needs to be watched closely.

Capital Proposals for G-SIBs: Basel Endgame and Regulatory Direction

The proposed changes for large banks are best understood as a recalibration rather than

a rewrite of the Basel III endgame framework. Moody’s noted that the March proposals

were not particularly surprising, reflecting a continuation of themes regulators had

already signaled.