U.S. Internet: Assuming Coverage

研报英文原文证据摘录

U.S. Internet: Assuming Coverage

ng; this may not manifest due to higher customer acquisition costs, higher promotional activity to

defend market share, or reinvestment of cost savings from fulfillment back into growth areas.

Etsy Inc (ETSY / ETSY)

Valuation Methodology: Our $82 PT is based on an average 3x revenue and 14x EBITDA on our FY27 estimates.

Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: Key risks include the following: 1) The inflection

in core Etsy GMS growth is not a foregone conclusion, and management commentary suggests 1Q could be stronger growth on a reported basis as FX

headwinds wane. 2) Competitive intensity is picking back up in the US, particularly from foreign platforms. This creates both direct competition, as

well as raising competitive intensity on marketing spend. 3) The evolution of agentic commerce is highly uncertain and evolving quickly, and there are

risks that consumption shifts off Etsy, as well as this new channel could erode Etsy's on- and off-platform advertising business, which is a meaningful

driver of revenues/take rate and profitability. 4) At a 25%+ take rate for Etsy marketplace with fairly high adoption of both payments and advertising, it

is less clear what could drive take rate higher. There's also a school of thought that suggests marketplace take rates should be lower to reduce friction/

drive marketplace adoption. 5) Etsy may have to lean in on marketing further to help effectuate the GMS acceleration, mitigating potential EBITDA

benefits from stronger top-line growth.

Expedia Inc. (EXPE / EXPE)

Valuation Methodology: Our price target of $264 is based on 14x our FY27E GAAP EPS.