Global Biopharma: Barclays IBD KOL call: Bullish on TL1A class, positive for ROP & SAN in EU, and MRK & TEVA in US

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Global Biopharma: Barclays IBD KOL call: Bullish on TL1A class, positive for ROP & SAN in EU, and MRK & TEVA in US

the event of success, a wide label will

likely be obtained. Whilst MRK has the timing advantage of being potentially first to market,

as with any new IBD assets, our KOL expects initial usage would come in refractory

populations.

ABBV's Rinvoq (a JAK inhibitor) remains the Phase 3 efficacy benchmark for the TL1A class.

MRK’s tulisokibart would likely be the first-to-market TL1A (Phase 3 late this year), which could

potentially give it an early class-positioning advantage. For ROP, afimkibart (Phase 3 in 2027)

has a credible path to become an important IBD asset if Phase 3 confirms strong objective

efficacy. For SAN, duvakitug (Phase 3 in 2028) could be particularly competitive if its SC profile is

paired with Rinvoq-like efficacy. The key debate remains whether TL1As can break the

therapeutic ceiling or become another effective, but crowded biologic option alongside IL-23s.

On IL-23 and broader IBD takes, see US team note.

Note ABBV and MRK are covered by US Biopharma Analyst Emily Field, and Teva is covered by US

Specialty Pharma Analyst Glen Santangelo.

Call Takes:

•• TL1A could be a major new IBD class, but the anti-fibrotic thesis still needs clinical proof.

The KOL explained that although TL1A sits within TNF-superfamily biology, the mechanism

should not be viewed as an anti-TNF-like drug. TL1A signals through DR3, drives

inflammatory pathways, and may also act on fibroblasts/myofibroblasts, creating potential

relevance for fibrosis in Crohn’s disease. However, the KOL was careful to note that anti-

fibrotic benefit has not yet been demonstrated clinically in IBD, so this should be viewed as

upside rather than a proven differentiator.