LatAm Oil & Gas "LightHouse: PBR, EC (2x), BRAV, BRKM, Fuel Dist. (2x), ..."

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LatAm Oil & Gas "LightHouse: PBR, EC (2x), BRAV, BRKM, Fuel Dist. (2x), ..."

As a recap, the previous temporary leave arrangement would end on 28 June amid

ongoing judicial investigations, after which Roa was expected to return to

coordinate the transition with Colombia’s next administration. That said, we

continue to note that charges against executives and noise around it may be viewed

by the market as negative from a governance standpoint, potentially increasing

risk perception over the thesis.

"What could happen after the 1st round of the presidential elections on

Sunday?": This Sunday (31 May), Colombia heads into the 1st round of presidential

elections, with a 2nd round (21 June) widely expected as most recent polls show

left-wing Iván Cepeda (ally of President Petro) at c35%, followed by right-wing

candidates Abelardo de la Espriella at c30% and Paloma Valencia at c15%. In a

potential Cepeda- De la Espirella 2nd round matchup, Cepeda has led in 6 out of

latest 10 polls, though De la Espirella has led in the most recent 2 polls released

(read more). That said, we see Sunday’s results as a potential key thermometer for

market assessment of the final outcome. As a SOE and the largest Colombian

company, we believe these could bring additional volatility to EC shares,

particularly if one candidate clearly outperforms recent polls, gaining traction for

the runoff. With the thesis heavily dependent on the election outcome, which

remains uncertain, while trading at 9- 10% div yield for the year, below other LatAm

peers, we reiterate our Neutral rating.

1) Mr. Cepeda: Opposes Colombia’s reliance on new oil exploration as a

development strategy and rejects extractive projects that may threaten

ecosystems and local communities. Advocates for a gradual reduction in