A Fork in The Road

研报英文原文证据摘录

A Fork in The Road

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MayMay26,26,20262026

Bear Scenario Positioning

From a positioning perspective, we believe a bear-case environment draws

comparisons to 2022. With rising interest rates, energy prices, and inflation, we

believe that investors would likely buy traditional defensive sectors (Staples, Utilities,

& Health Care) along with Energy. While Energy is more of an idiosyncratic position,

these sectors broadly follow our U.S. Market Cycle framework positioning for

Retrenchment.

Defensive Sectors Relative Performance Vs. U.S. 10Y

(2022 Indexed Performance) 135 4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

115 3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

95 1.5%

Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22

Utilities Rel. S&P 500 (L) Staples Rel. S&P 500 (L)

Health Care Rel. S&P 500 (L) U.S. 10Y Yield (R)

S&P 500 Sector Performance Rankings

(Market Weighted, 1995 – Current, Top to Bottom Performing)

Early Late Early Late

Rebound Retrenchment

Acceleration Acceleration Deceleration Deceleration

Discretionary Technology Technology Energy Technology Comm. Svcs

Materials Financials Energy Utilities Utilities Health Care

Financials Industrials Financials Health Care Discretionary Utilities

Technology Energy Industrials Staples Staples Staples

Industrials Discretionary Health Care Technology Industrials Technology

Energy Materials Discretionary Discretionary Financials Discretionary

Comm. Svcs Health Care Materials Industrials Health Care Materials

Health Care Staples Comm. Svcs Comm. Svcs Comm. Svcs Industrials

Staples Comm. Svcs Staples Financials Materials Energy

Utilities Utilities Utilities Materials Energy Financials

Sources: Wolfe Research Portfolio Strategy, Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, ISM, and Bloomberg.

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