ONEGas way or another, gonna find ya; start Peer Perform

研报英文原文证据摘录

ONEGas way or another, gonna find ya; start Peer Perform

May 26, 2026

ONE Gas (OGS) Snapshot

Exhibit 1: Financial Summary Exhibit 2: Modeling Assumptions

Source: Wolfe Utilities & Power Research, Company Filings

Source: Wolfe Utilities & Power Research, Company Filings, FactSet

Company Description Exhibit 3: 2026 Rate Base by OGS’ States

OGS is a Tulsa-based pure-play LDC, with operations in OK, KS

and TX. OGS serves 2.3 million gas customers and has a $6.4B

rate base growing at 7-9% through 2030. OK is its largest state

with 42% of rate base, followed by TX with 34% and KS with 24%.

OGS was spun out of ONEOK in 2014.

Investment Thesis

We are Peer Perform on pure-play LDC with 5-7% EPS growth.

OGS’ rate base growth is above average though below sector-

leader ATO. OGS operates in generally constructive states and

has a solid B/S. OGS sees opportunities from serving gas to large

load customers, such as data centers and gas-fired power plants;

only 1.5 GW is in its plan, with 3 GW in late-stage discussions.

But we see flattish near-term EPS growth, in part on timing of OK

rate case and front-loaded equity issuances. OGS also relies Source: Wolfe Utilities & Power Research, Company Filings

upon ST debt, carrying $700-800M/yr, which can be cost

effective, but leaves the company susceptible to unexpected Exhibit 4: Projected Year-End Rate Base ($M)

spikes in rates like that in 2024. Due to these factors, we believe

OGS will trade in line with our pure-play gas LDCs avg P/E of

15.5x 2028. Our LT estimates are about in line with 2029-30

consensus and reflect a flat ST debt rate.

Valuation

Our fair value range of $80-85 reflects a pure-play gas LDC

average P/E of 15.5x 2028. Upsides: higher capex & customer

growth, lower equity needs, lower ST interest rates, incremental